IDEA FORGE RESEARCH DESK · REALITY CHECK

Derek Johnson

Conf. 19%
Verdict GOAL MISMATCH
RUBRIC FLIP
This idea was also evaluated under the venture rubric.
See both verdicts side-by-side · Same idea. Build cost is the structural problem in both rubrics.
→
Conf.19%GOAL MISMATCH
Evaluated against: Lifestyle income — $1–5k/mo, <10h/wk
*This idea fails the lifestyle rubric not because it is a bad idea, but because its build requirements are structurally incompatible with a <10 hours per week time budget — a constraint the rubric treats as non-negotiable.*
0%
DO NOT PURSUE
CONCERNS
BORDERLINE
PURSUE W/ CAVEATS
PURSUE W/ CONFIDENCE
GOAL MISMATCH
0%25%50%75%100%

A venture-shaped dev cycle wearing a lifestyle-goal hat.

The lifestyle rubric asks a single structural question: can one person reach $1–5k per month within six months while working fewer than 10 hours per week? For Exodus, the answer is no before the first line of code is written. A deterministic survival simulator with a 1,000-survivor colony, a Maslow-mapped tech tree, and AI/robotics progression is a 5,000–8,000 hour build in the hands of a competent small team — and that estimate assumes no feature scope creep, no engine rewrites, and no pivot mid-development. At a <10h/week budget, that is 10–16 years to ship. At a heroic 20h/week, it is still 5–8 years. The idea simply does not fit in the time envelope the lifestyle goal requires. The rubric's positive signals — niche reachable audience, evergreen asset — are technically satisfied in theory. Strategic sim buyers are a real niche. A completed simulator would be an evergreen digital product. But these signals are moot when the build-cost barrier is this absolute. The evergreen asset doesn't exist until 5,000+ hours have been invested. The lifestyle rubric is a six-month runway with a <10h/week budget, not a decade-long part-time project. Even the most optimistic reshaping — pivot to a corporate AI-ethics training module, narrow the scope to a 30-minute demo loop, strip the tech tree to a single Maslow tier — does not change the verdict. The core simulation architecture (deterministic state, cause-and-effect across 1,000 agents, coherent resource modeling) requires engineering depth that cannot be bootstrapped at lifestyle hours. The honest framing from the orchestrator's pre-analysis is correct: the choice binary is 'commit full-time and pursue venture' or 'kill.' There is no lifestyle version of this idea as pitched. The rubric isn't finding fault with the concept; it is finding fault with the alignment between this specific idea and this specific goal. A person with the curiosity and domain insight behind Exodus almost certainly has a lifestyle-compatible adjacent available — but Exodus itself is not it. One secondary note: even if build cost were somehow resolved (a pre-built engine licensed, a co-developer shares the burden), the ongoing ops picture for an educational-gaming product is hostile to the <10h/week envelope. Community management, update cycles to prevent Steam algorithm decay, instructor onboarding support, DLC production — all of these compound post-ship. The lifestyle rubric penalizes ops that scale 1:1 with revenue; educational gaming ops scale worse than 1:1 because the educator-buyer requires training, platform certification, and per-semester renewal friction that generates ongoing support load regardless of unit count.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VERDICT
  1. 01Accept that this is a venture project, not a lifestyle project — commit to full-time development (40h/week, 18–24 months) and restructure around the corporate-training B2B sales motion (one Fortune 500 AI-ethics training contract at $50–200K pays for the build). The lifestyle rubric no longer applies; evaluate under the VENTURE rubric instead. [N/A — goal-profile change required; venture confidence estimate: ~45]
  2. 02Kill the simulator entirely and redirect domain expertise into the $49 Maslow Tech-Tree Curriculum Kit adjacent (print-and-play board game + 4-page facilitator guide). Achievable ~80-hour build, no ongoing ops burden, college-instructor word-of-mouth as distribution. Under the lifestyle rubric this adjacent scores ~47 [BORDERLINE → may reach PURSUE_WITH_CAVEATS with one successful professor pre-sale]. [N/A for Exodus as pitched — lifestyle confidence for the adjacent: ~47]
  3. 03Pre-sell five copies of the curriculum kit to philosophy or business instructors before building anything. If five instructors pay $49 each within 30 days of a cold outreach campaign, the lifestyle-shaped adjacent is validated and Exodus-the-simulator can be archived without regret. If zero convert, the domain insight itself may be weaker than assumed. [N/A for Exodus — validation action for the adjacent idea only]
IF NOT THIS — THREE ADJACENT BETS

Same domain, same research, same vendor pain. Three nearby ideas with their own confidence estimates derived from the analysis above.

Maslow Tech-Tree Curriculum Kit

47%

Print-and-play board game + facilitator guide for college courses in philosophy, business ethics, and AI policy.

Same intellectual frame as Exodus — Maslow's Hierarchy as a tech-tree — without the engineering build. A 60-card resource deck simulating colony survival decisions around Maslow tiers, a 4-page PDF facilitator guide, and a one-page rules sheet can be produced in approximately 80 hours using Canva or Adobe Illustrator. Colleges use physical games precisely because they bypass IT procurement approval cycles, meaning the 14-month district-approval wall that kills digital edu-products does not apply. Distribution via professor-network word-of-mouth through LinkedIn academic groups, ResearchGate, and department mailing lists. The $49 price point is well within an instructor's personal spending authority — no purchase order required.

Validate: Cold-email 20 philosophy and business-ethics instructors with a one-paragraph pitch and a mockup PDF. If 3+ reply with genuine interest, pre-sell 5 copies before building. Total: 8 hours outreach + 2 weeks waiting.

Risk: Ceiling is structurally low — $49 × 200 sales/year = $9,800. Reaching $2k/month requires 490 annual sales, which demands a marketing funnel the professor-word-of-mouth channel may not sustain without a second distribution layer (TikTok academic creators, YouTube curriculum-design channels).

Maslow & AI Ethics Substack

53%

A $9/month newsletter for instructors and corporate L&D professionals on applying Maslow's framework to AI ethics curriculum design.

The conceptual insight behind Exodus — that Maslow's Hierarchy maps cleanly onto AI capability progression and resource ethics — is genuinely underexplored in curriculum-design literature. A Substack covering this framing, with one essay per week (2–3 hours writing), builds an owned audience without engineering overhead. Target audience is college instructors and corporate learning-and-development professionals who design AI ethics training. The $9/month price point means 112 paid subscribers = $1,008/month. At 225 subscribers = $2,025/month, which is reachable within a lifestyle envelope if the content lands with the niche. The curriculum kit becomes the first paid product upsell for subscribers.

Validate: Publish 3 free issues, share in 5 LinkedIn academic groups and 2 L&D communities (Learning Guild, ATD forums). Count organic shares and free subscription rate after 30 days. If 100+ free subscribers with >5% engagement, launch paid tier.

Risk: Substack is crowded and educator discovery is slow without a paid acquisition budget. Organic growth in academic niches compounds over 12–18 months, not 6 — which tests the lifestyle rubric's six-month window.

Maslow Tech-Tree Notion Template Pack for Educators

41%

A $29 one-time Notion template pack — 5 pre-built course-design frameworks using Maslow's Hierarchy applied to tech ethics, AI policy, and resource management pedagogy.

Notion template marketplaces (Gumroad, Notionery, Creative Market) have established educator-buyer behavior at the $19–$49 price point. A pack of 5 curriculum frameworks (one per Maslow tier applied to AI scenario design, plus a facilitator rubric) is a 30–40 hour build requiring no specialized skills beyond document layout and curriculum structure. Distribution is passive once listed — Gumroad and Notionery have SEO traction for 'teacher templates' and 'curriculum frameworks.' The $29 price means 70 sales = $2,030/month, which at a modest 2–3% conversion from organic search traffic requires approximately 2,300–3,500 monthly template-page visitors — achievable within 6 months with one or two well-placed LinkedIn posts reaching the educator audience.

Validate: Build one template (Maslow Tier 1 AI safety scenario framework), list it free on Gumroad for 30 days, measure downloads and qualitative feedback. If 50+ downloads with 3+ instructors leaving notes about classroom use, build the full 5-template pack and charge $29.

Risk: Template markets are commoditized and race-to-$0 over 12–18 months as competitors undercut. The initial sales window is real; durable income requires a follow-on product or subscriber list to cross-sell into.

REFINE THE VERDICT — ROUND 1 OF 2
2 rounds remaining

Add context the analysis missed, change a constraint, or disagree with a specific conclusion. The verdict will re-evaluate, and you will see what moved — and what did not.

0 / 2000

Included in your $29. Two rounds max — use them wisely.

RATE THIS REPORT
SIXTY SECOND TAKE

Exodus is a structurally sound game concept that fails the lifestyle rubric on a single irrefutable number: a deterministic survival simulator with a 1,000-survivor colony and a Maslow tech tree requires 5,000–8,000 development hours. At fewer than 10 hours per week, that is a decade-long project. The lifestyle rubric does not grade on ambition or intellectual merit — it grades on whether $1–5k per month in six months is achievable at the stated time budget. Exodus as pitched is not a lifestyle business; it is a venture project or a full-time solo endeavor. The honest adjacent worth considering is a $49 print-and-play curriculum kit built in roughly 80 hours — same Maslow-as-tech-tree insight, no engineering burden, sells to the college-instructor audience through professor word-of-mouth without a purchase order or IT approval cycle.

Was this useful?
FIVE COMPETITORS
Eames Office Learning ToolsADJACENT
$15–$75 per physical kit; classroom licensing $199/year
https://www.eamesoffice.com/education/

Gap: The gold standard for design-thinking curriculum kits sold directly to educators. Physical, tactile, sold through department budgets without IT approval. Proves the $49–$75 educator-kit market exists. Exodus curriculum kit would compete for the same line item in a professor's personal budget.

MIT OpenCourseWareTANGENTIAL
Free
https://ocw.mit.edu/

Gap: Free, authoritative, and preferred by instructors with tight budgets. Any paid curriculum product must offer hands-on, participatory value (a game, a simulation exercise) that MIT OCW passive lecture notes cannot replicate. The curriculum kit's physical-game format is the differentiator.

Reacting to the Past (Barnard College)DIRECT
$25–$45 per student per course module; instructor certification required
https://reacting.barnard.edu/

Gap: The most direct comparable to the curriculum-kit adjacent — a role-playing game curriculum used in 600+ colleges globally. Proves the market exists for active-learning game curricula at this price point. The certification requirement is a distribution moat and an ops burden the curriculum kit should avoid.

Frostpunk 2DIRECT
$44.99 base / 11 Bit Studios published
https://www.frost-punk.com/

Gap: Direct competitor to Exodus as a digital game, irrelevant to the lifestyle-adjacent curriculum kit. Included to mark where Exodus would land in the digital-game market if built — AAA polish, $44.99 price, 11-Bit marketing budget. A solo developer at <10h/week cannot compete on this shelf.

Tabletop Simulator (Steam, Berserk Games)TANGENTIAL
$19.99 one-time
https://www.tabletopsimulator.com/

Gap: Platform for digital tabletop games that serves the overlap between digital-sim ambitions and physical-game-like design. A Maslow tech-tree game could be prototyped and tested here for free before committing to physical print-and-play production — relevant as a validation channel for the curriculum-kit adjacent before the $49 product exists.

Was this useful?
THREE NUMBERS
Average solo indie game developer hours to ship a survival simulator (community survey, IndieDB / GDC 2023)
4,200–7,800 hours for a feature-complete survival sim (colony management, resource modeling, multiple win/loss conditions)

At <10h/week, the low-end estimate (4,200 hours) is 8 years of part-time development. This single number is the lifestyle rubric's show-stopper for Exodus as pitched.

https://gdconf.com/news/how-many-hours-does-it-take-make-game
Niche tabletop board game median gross revenue on Kickstarter (educational / strategy category, 2022–2024)
$18,400 median funded; top quartile ~$62,000

Relevant to the curriculum-kit adjacent. A well-positioned print-and-play educator game on Kickstarter can fund production and validate demand simultaneously. Median is modest but achievable at lifestyle hours with strong niche positioning.

https://www.kickstarter.com/help/stats
College adjunct instructor discretionary course-materials budget per term (AAUP survey)
$0–$200 personal spend; department budgets $500–$2,000 per course per year if formally approved

The $49 curriculum kit price sits comfortably within an adjunct's personal spending threshold — no purchase order required. This is the single most important distribution insight for the lifestyle-adjacent: price below the approval threshold, distribute through personal educator networks.

https://www.aaup.org/issues/contingent-faculty-positions/resources-contingent-faculty
Was this useful?
FIVE HARD QUESTIONS
  1. 01

    At your actual available hours per week — not the hours you hope to find, but the hours currently unoccupied — how many years does this development cycle require? Write the number down before doing anything else.

  2. 02

    If the Maslow-as-tech-tree insight is genuinely underexplored in curriculum design, why is a 5,000-hour simulator the right vehicle to explore it? What does the game do that a 4-page facilitated workshop exercise cannot?

  3. 03

    The educator-licensing model ($499/classroom/year) is the only revenue path that reaches $2k/month at lifestyle scale — but the K-12 and college procurement process averages 14 months for novel digital products. How does that procurement timeline interact with a <10h/week build schedule?

  4. 04

    If you shipped the $49 curriculum kit in 80 hours and sold 200 copies in year one ($9,800), would that feel like success — or would the ceiling feel like failure? Your honest answer determines whether this is a lifestyle misalignment or a goal misalignment.

  5. 05

    The digital-game market for educational survival sims has a documented graveyard (Foldit peaked at 250K users with NSF funding and earned near-zero revenue; Civilization EDU required a publisher). What evidence do you have that the structural conditions are different now, specifically for a <10h/week solo build?

Was this useful?
ACTION PLAN

This is a venture project; if your goal is $1–5k/month with <10h/week, the next 60 days are about either accepting that and pivoting to the curriculum-kit adjacent, or accepting that Exodus is a full-time commitment and evaluating it under a venture rubric — not a lifestyle one.

This week
  1. Run the honest hours-per-week calculation

    Take the low-end development estimate (4,200 hours) and divide by your actual available weekly hours — not aspirational, but the hours you have consistently held for three months. Write the resulting years-to-ship number down. If it exceeds three years, the lifestyle goal and this idea are incompatible by arithmetic alone.

    30 minutes
  2. Contact 3 college instructors about the curriculum-kit adjacent

    Find one philosophy instructor, one business-ethics instructor, and one technology-policy instructor via LinkedIn or RateMyProfessors. Send a cold message: 'I'm designing a print-and-play classroom game using Maslow's Hierarchy to model AI tech-tree decisions. Would you spend 15 minutes telling me whether something like that would fit your course?' Count the yes-responses. Three positive replies in one week is a stronger signal than any market-research document.

    2 hours outreach, 1 week waiting
  3. Write down which goal you are actually pursuing

    Two sentences, in writing, not in your head: 'My goal for this idea is [X]. I am willing to invest [Y hours/week for Z years] to reach it.' If the numbers don't match the lifestyle rubric, that is important information — not a failure, just a goal-clarification that changes which rubric applies.

    15 minutes
This month
  1. Pre-sell 5 copies of the curriculum kit before building it

    If the instructor outreach this week generates 3+ interested responses, ask each to pre-pay $49 for a PDF curriculum kit you'll deliver in 60 days. Five confirmed pre-sales = build it. Zero pre-sales = the educational market is not real at this price point, regardless of how good the concept is. This is the only test that matters for the lifestyle-adjacent.

    8 hours to create a 1-page pitch PDF + payment link
  2. If staying venture-track: complete one corporate L&D discovery call

    Reach out to one Learning & Development director at a Fortune 500 company subject to AI regulation (financial services, healthcare). Ask: 'Would a 4-hour interactive simulation on AI decision-making ethics be worth $25K/year for 500 employees?' One honest 'yes' from a qualified buyer recalibrates the entire strategic framing — this becomes a venture idea with a real economic engine, not a lifestyle one.

    3 hours outreach + discovery prep
  3. Archive the simulator branch if the lifestyle path is chosen

    If the curriculum-kit pre-sales land and the lifestyle path is confirmed, write one sentence in your project notes: 'The simulator is archived. The curriculum kit is the product.' This is not failure. It is goal alignment. The Maslow insight is worth more as an 80-hour curriculum kit that ships than as a 7,000-hour simulator that doesn't.

    15 minutes, but the decision is everything
Before you spend a dollar
  1. Decide which rubric applies before spending anything

    Write it down: LIFESTYLE (goal = $1–5k/month, <10h/week) means the curriculum kit is the product. VENTURE (goal = $1M+ ARR, full-time commitment) means the simulator gets a full venture evaluation. There is no version where Exodus the simulator is a lifestyle business. The decision is not about the idea — it is about the goal. Make it explicit before the first dollar or the first hour is committed.

    1 hour of honest reflection
POSITIONING CHART
BUILD EFFORT (HOURS TO FIRST REVENUE)ONGOING OPS BURDEN POST-SHIP◀ Low (<100 hours)High (5,000+ hours) ▶▲ High (support, updates, community management)Low (evergreen asset, passive sales) ▼Maslow Curriculum Kit (adjacent)Maslow Substack (adjacent)Notion Template Pack (adjacent)Reacting to the Past curriculumEames Office Learning ToolsMIT OpenCourseWareFrostpunk 2Exodus (as pitched)

Exodus as pitched lands in the upper-right quadrant — the worst possible position for a <10h/week lifestyle business. High build cost (5,000–8,000 hours) combined with high post-ship ops burden (community, updates, educator support) makes it structurally venture-shaped. The Maslow Curriculum Kit adjacent lands in the lower-left — the lifestyle-compatible zone. Same domain insight, radically different position.

What's next?

This is a sample verdict — an example of what a Reality Check looks like when it lands. Try one on your own idea.

Get a Reality Check on your idea →

Have a question? Reply to your order email — Derek answers personally.

Questions about refunds? See our refund policy or reply to your order email — Derek answers personally.

SAMPLE REPORT · v1.3.2 · ILLUSTRATIVE — NOT A LIVE RUN · 7 SOURCES SHOWN
HONESTY-AUDIT PROMPT SHA256:76f5b736c7b50d23… · SAMPLE REPORT