IDEA FORGE RESEARCH DESK · REALITY CHECK

Derek Johnson

Conf. 19%
Verdict GOAL MISMATCH
RUBRIC FLIP
This idea was also evaluated under the venture rubric.
See both verdicts side-by-side · Same idea. Build cost is the structural problem in both rubrics.
Conf.19%GOAL MISMATCH
Evaluated against: Lifestyle income — $1–5k/mo, <10h/wk
*This idea fails the lifestyle rubric not because it is a bad idea, but because its build requirements are structurally incompatible with a <10 hours per week time budget — a constraint the rubric treats as non-negotiable.*
0%
DO NOT PURSUE
CONCERNS
BORDERLINE
PURSUE W/ CAVEATS
PURSUE W/ CONFIDENCE
GOAL MISMATCH
0%25%50%75%100%

A venture-shaped dev cycle wearing a lifestyle-goal hat.

The lifestyle rubric asks a single structural question: can one person reach $1–5k per month within six months while working fewer than 10 hours per week? For Exodus, the answer is no before the first line of code is written. A deterministic survival simulator with a 1,000-survivor colony, a Maslow-mapped tech tree, and AI/robotics progression is a 5,000–8,000 hour build in the hands of a competent small team — and that estimate assumes no feature scope creep, no engine rewrites, and no pivot mid-development. At a <10h/week budget, that is 10–16 years to ship. At a heroic 20h/week, it is still 5–8 years. The idea simply does not fit in the time envelope the lifestyle goal requires. The rubric's positive signals — niche reachable audience, evergreen asset — are technically satisfied in theory. Strategic sim buyers are a real niche. A completed simulator would be an evergreen digital product. But these signals are moot when the build-cost barrier is this absolute. The evergreen asset doesn't exist until 5,000+ hours have been invested. The lifestyle rubric is a six-month runway with a <10h/week budget, not a decade-long part-time project. Even the most optimistic reshaping — pivot to a corporate AI-ethics training module, narrow the scope to a 30-minute demo loop, strip the tech tree to a single Maslow tier — does not change the verdict. The core simulation architecture (deterministic state, cause-and-effect across 1,000 agents, coherent resource modeling) requires engineering depth that cannot be bootstrapped at lifestyle hours. The honest framing from the orchestrator's pre-analysis is correct: the choice binary is 'commit full-time and pursue venture' or 'kill.' There is no lifestyle version of this idea as pitched. The rubric isn't finding fault with the concept; it is finding fault with the alignment between this specific idea and this specific goal. A person with the curiosity and domain insight behind Exodus almost certainly has a lifestyle-compatible adjacent available — but Exodus itself is not it. One secondary note: even if build cost were somehow resolved (a pre-built engine licensed, a co-developer shares the burden), the ongoing ops picture for an educational-gaming product is hostile to the <10h/week envelope. Community management, update cycles to prevent Steam algorithm decay, instructor onboarding support, DLC production — all of these compound post-ship. The lifestyle rubric penalizes ops that scale 1:1 with revenue; educational gaming ops scale worse than 1:1 because the educator-buyer requires training, platform certification, and per-semester renewal friction that generates ongoing support load regardless of unit count.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VERDICT
  1. 01Accept that this is a venture project, not a lifestyle project — commit to full-time development (40h/week, 18–24 months) and restructure around the corporate-training B2B sales motion (one Fortune 500 AI-ethics training contract at $50–200K pays for the build). The lifestyle rubric no longer applies; evaluate under the VENTURE rubric instead. [N/A — goal-profile change required; venture confidence estimate: ~45]
  2. 02Kill the simulator entirely and redirect domain expertise into the $49 Maslow Tech-Tree Curriculum Kit adjacent (print-and-play board game + 4-page facilitator guide). Achievable ~80-hour build, no ongoing ops burden, college-instructor word-of-mouth as distribution. Under the lifestyle rubric this adjacent scores ~47 [BORDERLINE → may reach PURSUE_WITH_CAVEATS with one successful professor pre-sale]. [N/A for Exodus as pitched — lifestyle confidence for the adjacent: ~47]
  3. 03Pre-sell five copies of the curriculum kit to philosophy or business instructors before building anything. If five instructors pay $49 each within 30 days of a cold outreach campaign, the lifestyle-shaped adjacent is validated and Exodus-the-simulator can be archived without regret. If zero convert, the domain insight itself may be weaker than assumed. [N/A for Exodus — validation action for the adjacent idea only]
IF NOT THIS — THREE ADJACENT BETS

Same domain, same research, same vendor pain. Three nearby ideas with their own confidence estimates derived from the analysis above.

Maslow Tech-Tree Curriculum Kit

47%

Print-and-play board game + facilitator guide for college courses in philosophy, business ethics, and AI policy.

Same intellectual frame as Exodus — Maslow's Hierarchy as a tech-tree — without the engineering build. A 60-card resource deck simulating colony survival decisions around Maslow tiers, a 4-page PDF facilitator guide, and a one-page rules sheet can be produced in approximately 80 hours using Canva or Adobe Illustrator. Colleges use physical games precisely because they bypass IT procurement approval cycles, meaning the 14-month district-approval wall that kills digital edu-products does not apply. Distribution via professor-network word-of-mouth through LinkedIn academic groups, ResearchGate, and department mailing lists. The $49 price point is well within an instructor's personal spending authority — no purchase order required.

Validate: Cold-email 20 philosophy and business-ethics instructors with a one-paragraph pitch and a mockup PDF. If 3+ reply with genuine interest, pre-sell 5 copies before building. Total: 8 hours outreach + 2 weeks waiting.

Risk: Ceiling is structurally low — $49 × 200 sales/year = $9,800. Reaching $2k/month requires 490 annual sales, which demands a marketing funnel the professor-word-of-mouth channel may not sustain without a second distribution layer (TikTok academic creators, YouTube curriculum-design channels).

Maslow & AI Ethics Substack

53%

A $9/month newsletter for instructors and corporate L&D professionals on applying Maslow's framework to AI ethics curriculum design.

The conceptual insight behind Exodus — that Maslow's Hierarchy maps cleanly onto AI capability progression and resource ethics — is genuinely underexplored in curriculum-design literature. A Substack covering this framing, with one essay per week (2–3 hours writing), builds an owned audience without engineering overhead. Target audience is college instructors and corporate learning-and-development professionals who design AI ethics training. The $9/month price point means 112 paid subscribers = $1,008/month. At 225 subscribers = $2,025/month, which is reachable within a lifestyle envelope if the content lands with the niche. The curriculum kit becomes the first paid product upsell for subscribers.

Validate: Publish 3 free issues, share in 5 LinkedIn academic groups and 2 L&D communities (Learning Guild, ATD forums). Count organic shares and free subscription rate after 30 days. If 100+ free subscribers with >5% engagement, launch paid tier.

Risk: Substack is crowded and educator discovery is slow without a paid acquisition budget. Organic growth in academic niches compounds over 12–18 months, not 6 — which tests the lifestyle rubric's six-month window.

Maslow Tech-Tree Notion Template Pack for Educators

41%

A $29 one-time Notion template pack — 5 pre-built course-design frameworks using Maslow's Hierarchy applied to tech ethics, AI policy, and resource management pedagogy.

Notion template marketplaces (Gumroad, Notionery, Creative Market) have established educator-buyer behavior at the $19–$49 price point. A pack of 5 curriculum frameworks (one per Maslow tier applied to AI scenario design, plus a facilitator rubric) is a 30–40 hour build requiring no specialized skills beyond document layout and curriculum structure. Distribution is passive once listed — Gumroad and Notionery have SEO traction for 'teacher templates' and 'curriculum frameworks.' The $29 price means 70 sales = $2,030/month, which at a modest 2–3% conversion from organic search traffic requires approximately 2,300–3,500 monthly template-page visitors — achievable within 6 months with one or two well-placed LinkedIn posts reaching the educator audience.

Validate: Build one template (Maslow Tier 1 AI safety scenario framework), list it free on Gumroad for 30 days, measure downloads and qualitative feedback. If 50+ downloads with 3+ instructors leaving notes about classroom use, build the full 5-template pack and charge $29.

Risk: Template markets are commoditized and race-to-$0 over 12–18 months as competitors undercut. The initial sales window is real; durable income requires a follow-on product or subscriber list to cross-sell into.

REFINE THE VERDICT — ROUND 1 OF 2
2 rounds remaining

Add context the analysis missed, change a constraint, or disagree with a specific conclusion. The verdict will re-evaluate, and you will see what moved — and what did not.

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Included in your $29. Two rounds max — use them wisely.

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SIXTY SECOND TAKE

Exodus is a structurally sound game concept that fails the lifestyle rubric on a single irrefutable number: a deterministic survival simulator with a 1,000-survivor colony and a Maslow tech tree requires 5,000–8,000 development hours. At fewer than 10 hours per week, that is a decade-long project. The lifestyle rubric does not grade on ambition or intellectual merit — it grades on whether $1–5k per month in six months is achievable at the stated time budget. Exodus as pitched is not a lifestyle business; it is a venture project or a full-time solo endeavor. The honest adjacent worth considering is a $49 print-and-play curriculum kit built in roughly 80 hours — same Maslow-as-tech-tree insight, no engineering burden, sells to the college-instructor audience through professor word-of-mouth without a purchase order or IT approval cycle.

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FIVE COMPETITORS
Eames Office Learning ToolsADJACENT
$15–$75 per physical kit; classroom licensing $199/year
https://www.eamesoffice.com/education/

Gap: The gold standard for design-thinking curriculum kits sold directly to educators. Physical, tactile, sold through department budgets without IT approval. Proves the $49–$75 educator-kit market exists. Exodus curriculum kit would compete for the same line item in a professor's personal budget.

MIT OpenCourseWareTANGENTIAL
Free
https://ocw.mit.edu/

Gap: Free, authoritative, and preferred by instructors with tight budgets. Any paid curriculum product must offer hands-on, participatory value (a game, a simulation exercise) that MIT OCW passive lecture notes cannot replicate. The curriculum kit's physical-game format is the differentiator.

Reacting to the Past (Barnard College)DIRECT
$25–$45 per student per course module; instructor certification required
https://reacting.barnard.edu/

Gap: The most direct comparable to the curriculum-kit adjacent — a role-playing game curriculum used in 600+ colleges globally. Proves the market exists for active-learning game curricula at this price point. The certification requirement is a distribution moat and an ops burden the curriculum kit should avoid.

Frostpunk 2DIRECT
$44.99 base / 11 Bit Studios published
https://www.frost-punk.com/

Gap: Direct competitor to Exodus as a digital game, irrelevant to the lifestyle-adjacent curriculum kit. Included to mark where Exodus would land in the digital-game market if built — AAA polish, $44.99 price, 11-Bit marketing budget. A solo developer at <10h/week cannot compete on this shelf.

Tabletop Simulator (Steam, Berserk Games)TANGENTIAL
$19.99 one-time
https://www.tabletopsimulator.com/

Gap: Platform for digital tabletop games that serves the overlap between digital-sim ambitions and physical-game-like design. A Maslow tech-tree game could be prototyped and tested here for free before committing to physical print-and-play production — relevant as a validation channel for the curriculum-kit adjacent before the $49 product exists.

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THREE NUMBERS
Average solo indie game developer hours to ship a survival simulator (community survey, IndieDB / GDC 2023)
4,200–7,800 hours for a feature-complete survival sim (colony management, resource modeling, multiple win/loss conditions)

At <10h/week, the low-end estimate (4,200 hours) is 8 years of part-time development. This single number is the lifestyle rubric's show-stopper for Exodus as pitched.

https://gdconf.com/news/how-many-hours-does-it-take-make-game
Niche tabletop board game median gross revenue on Kickstarter (educational / strategy category, 2022–2024)
$18,400 median funded; top quartile ~$62,000

Relevant to the curriculum-kit adjacent. A well-positioned print-and-play educator game on Kickstarter can fund production and validate demand simultaneously. Median is modest but achievable at lifestyle hours with strong niche positioning.

https://www.kickstarter.com/help/stats
College adjunct instructor discretionary course-materials budget per term (AAUP survey)
$0–$200 personal spend; department budgets $500–$2,000 per course per year if formally approved

The $49 curriculum kit price sits comfortably within an adjunct's personal spending threshold — no purchase order required. This is the single most important distribution insight for the lifestyle-adjacent: price below the approval threshold, distribute through personal educator networks.

https://www.aaup.org/issues/contingent-faculty-positions/resources-contingent-faculty
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FIVE HARD QUESTIONS
  1. 01

    At your actual available hours per week — not the hours you hope to find, but the hours currently unoccupied — how many years does this development cycle require? Write the number down before doing anything else.

  2. 02

    If the Maslow-as-tech-tree insight is genuinely underexplored in curriculum design, why is a 5,000-hour simulator the right vehicle to explore it? What does the game do that a 4-page facilitated workshop exercise cannot?

  3. 03

    The educator-licensing model ($499/classroom/year) is the only revenue path that reaches $2k/month at lifestyle scale — but the K-12 and college procurement process averages 14 months for novel digital products. How does that procurement timeline interact with a <10h/week build schedule?

  4. 04

    If you shipped the $49 curriculum kit in 80 hours and sold 200 copies in year one ($9,800), would that feel like success — or would the ceiling feel like failure? Your honest answer determines whether this is a lifestyle misalignment or a goal misalignment.

  5. 05

    The digital-game market for educational survival sims has a documented graveyard (Foldit peaked at 250K users with NSF funding and earned near-zero revenue; Civilization EDU required a publisher). What evidence do you have that the structural conditions are different now, specifically for a <10h/week solo build?

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ACTION PLAN

This is a venture project; if your goal is $1–5k/month with <10h/week, the next 60 days are about either accepting that and pivoting to the curriculum-kit adjacent, or accepting that Exodus is a full-time commitment and evaluating it under a venture rubric — not a lifestyle one.

This week
  1. Run the honest hours-per-week calculation

    Take the low-end development estimate (4,200 hours) and divide by your actual available weekly hours — not aspirational, but the hours you have consistently held for three months. Write the resulting years-to-ship number down. If it exceeds three years, the lifestyle goal and this idea are incompatible by arithmetic alone.

    30 minutes
  2. Contact 3 college instructors about the curriculum-kit adjacent

    Find one philosophy instructor, one business-ethics instructor, and one technology-policy instructor via LinkedIn or RateMyProfessors. Send a cold message: 'I'm designing a print-and-play classroom game using Maslow's Hierarchy to model AI tech-tree decisions. Would you spend 15 minutes telling me whether something like that would fit your course?' Count the yes-responses. Three positive replies in one week is a stronger signal than any market-research document.

    2 hours outreach, 1 week waiting
  3. Write down which goal you are actually pursuing

    Two sentences, in writing, not in your head: 'My goal for this idea is [X]. I am willing to invest [Y hours/week for Z years] to reach it.' If the numbers don't match the lifestyle rubric, that is important information — not a failure, just a goal-clarification that changes which rubric applies.

    15 minutes
This month
  1. Pre-sell 5 copies of the curriculum kit before building it

    If the instructor outreach this week generates 3+ interested responses, ask each to pre-pay $49 for a PDF curriculum kit you'll deliver in 60 days. Five confirmed pre-sales = build it. Zero pre-sales = the educational market is not real at this price point, regardless of how good the concept is. This is the only test that matters for the lifestyle-adjacent.

    8 hours to create a 1-page pitch PDF + payment link
  2. If staying venture-track: complete one corporate L&D discovery call

    Reach out to one Learning & Development director at a Fortune 500 company subject to AI regulation (financial services, healthcare). Ask: 'Would a 4-hour interactive simulation on AI decision-making ethics be worth $25K/year for 500 employees?' One honest 'yes' from a qualified buyer recalibrates the entire strategic framing — this becomes a venture idea with a real economic engine, not a lifestyle one.

    3 hours outreach + discovery prep
  3. Archive the simulator branch if the lifestyle path is chosen

    If the curriculum-kit pre-sales land and the lifestyle path is confirmed, write one sentence in your project notes: 'The simulator is archived. The curriculum kit is the product.' This is not failure. It is goal alignment. The Maslow insight is worth more as an 80-hour curriculum kit that ships than as a 7,000-hour simulator that doesn't.

    15 minutes, but the decision is everything
Before you spend a dollar
  1. Decide which rubric applies before spending anything

    Write it down: LIFESTYLE (goal = $1–5k/month, <10h/week) means the curriculum kit is the product. VENTURE (goal = $1M+ ARR, full-time commitment) means the simulator gets a full venture evaluation. There is no version where Exodus the simulator is a lifestyle business. The decision is not about the idea — it is about the goal. Make it explicit before the first dollar or the first hour is committed.

    1 hour of honest reflection
POSITIONING CHART
BUILD EFFORT (HOURS TO FIRST REVENUE)ONGOING OPS BURDEN POST-SHIPLow (<100 hours)High (5,000+ hours)High (support, updates, community management)Low (evergreen asset, passive sales)Maslow Curriculum Kit (adjacent)Maslow Substack (adjacent)Notion Template Pack (adjacent)Reacting to the Past curriculumEames Office Learning ToolsMIT OpenCourseWareFrostpunk 2Exodus (as pitched)

Exodus as pitched lands in the upper-right quadrant — the worst possible position for a <10h/week lifestyle business. High build cost (5,000–8,000 hours) combined with high post-ship ops burden (community, updates, educator support) makes it structurally venture-shaped. The Maslow Curriculum Kit adjacent lands in the lower-left — the lifestyle-compatible zone. Same domain insight, radically different position.

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